Retaliatory tariffs could hurt Virginia soybean farmers

Some soybean farmers think high-tariff pains won’t hurt over long term 

By Drew Thompson, VCU Capital News Service

RICHMOND, Oct. 24 — The number of soybean exports from the U.S. to China hit zero in September for the first time in seven years, which will likely impact the Virginia soybean industry.

The lack of exports stem from stalled trade talks between the U.S. and China. President Donald Trump put trade tariffs on U.S. imports when he took office in January. This sparked retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports from common trading partners like China, Canada and the European Union, with the soybean industry getting hit hard. 

China’s tariff on U.S. products is 20 percent, with additional taxes that make China’s total tax 34 percent on U.S. soybeans, according to a press release from the American Soybean Association, or ASA. The tariffs have made soybeans too expensive for foreign buyers who have opted to buy from South American countries, namely Brazil and Argentina. 

“A trade deal with China to ensure affordable access to U.S. soybeans is more necessary and urgent than ever for farmers’ futures in coming years,” the ASA said in the press release. 

Agriculture is the largest private industry in Virginia, with an economic impact of $82.3 billion annually and providing nearly 400,000 jobs in the state, according to the Virginia Department of Agriculture. The state’s agricultural exports totaled more than $3.6 billion, with soybeans making up over $1.4 billion. 

U.S. soybean exports totaled $24.47 billion in 2024, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. China has consistently been the highest buyer of U.S. soybeans, accounting for $12.64 billion in 2024 — or about 52 percent of total soybean exports. 

China not buying any soybeans puts farmers at risk of a financial crisis. The U.S. has attempted remedies, such as a deal with Indonesia that eliminates tariffs on U.S. goods and a commitment by Indonesia to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products, according to the ASA. 

However, that commitment only makes up around a third of what China spent on soybeans alone in 2024. 

In the short term, farmers will likely switch to more profitable crops, said Virginia farmer Craig Bailey. However, Bailey does not believe that the tariffs will cause any long-term damage to the industry.

“At this point in the game, the tariffs haven’t hurt us,” he said. “The market should correct itself if everybody leaves it alone.”

The freefall of soybean exports coincides with a steady decrease in farmland across the country reported by the USDA’s 2022 Census of Agriculture. Virginia lost nearly 10 percent of its farms in a five-year period, and that number is reflected across a majority of the country. 

“Once [farmland] is gone, it’s gone,” Bailey said. “We have to take a different look and a different approach of how we view farmland.” 

Production needs have skyrocketed to an unsustainable rate, despite steadily decreasing farmland, said Joshua Fleenor, a Future Farmers of America adviser at Cumberland High School. 

“People aren’t going into agriculture,” Fleenor said. “Less than 1 to 2 percent of people in the world feed the other 98 percent.”

It can be increasingly difficult to maintain farmland because while farmers have a lot in net worth, they often do not have much in cash assets. 

Everyone will feel the ramifications from the lack of soybean exports, Fleenor said. Production costs will rise for farmers, and eventually trickle down to higher costs for consumers and less money for farmers. 

“The higher it costs us to make a product, the less money we make,” Fleenor said. 

This throws a wrench into the production cycle, which can eventually affect local communities, according to Shalom Farms. Although Shalom Farms does not grow commodity crops, they recognize how global trade policies will impact distribution programs. They see an “opportunity to deepen education and build resilient, community-based food systems” in response.

“Higher soybean prices raise feed and input costs for local producers, which can affect food prices across our community,” stated Ash Hobson, Shalom Farms communications manager. 

Capital News Service is a program of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Robertson School of Communication. Students in the program provide state government coverage for a variety of media outlets in Virginia.

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