Warren reports 11th death; Stanley area reports 10 cases in 11 days

COVID-19 Coronavirus in Page County, Virginia — Page Valley News will have continuing coverage of the Coronavirus' impact on Page County.

By Randy Arrington

LURAY, Oct. 6 — Warren County lead the Lord Fairfax Health District with seven new cases of COVID-19 reported on Tuesday. The county also reported a new hospitalization, and its 11th death since the pandemic hit the region in March.

Warren County has seen 18 new cases of the coronavirus surface over the past four days. During that time, Frederick County reported 23 (with another eight in Winchester), Shenandoah County had 16 and Page County saw nine.

The health district has reported a total of 147 new cases of COVID-19 over the past week, with 97 in the last four days. The past week has produced a dozen new hospitalizations across the district, with half of those in Warren County. Shenandoah County reported three hospitalizations, with one each in Frederick, Winchester and Page.

Warren County has reported four of the six deaths within the health district over the past week, after only reporting seven total deaths from the pandemic previously. Last Wednesday, Shenandoah County reported its 59th death due to the pandemic on the same day that Clarke County reported its first fatality from COVID-19.

On Monday, the Lord Fairfax Health District was reporting a seven-day positivity rate of 4.4 percent. Virginia is currently reporting a statewide seven-day positivity rate of 4.9 percent.

A cumulative breakdown by jurisdiction of the health district’s 3,281 reported cases, 283 hospitalizations and 117 deaths is as follows (hospitalizations – deaths):

954 — Frederick County (67-13)
830 — Shenandoah County (91-59)
522 — City of Winchester (37-4)
460 — Warren County (32-11)
414 — Page County (44-29)
99 — Clarke County (12-1)

School divisions in both Shenandoah and Warren counties have established COVID-19 dashboards to report new cases and quarantines. On Monday, Warren County, which utilizes a blended instructional plan, reported one active student case of COVID-19 and another 16 students that have been quarantined. Shenandoah County, which started the school year all virtual and is now looking to transition to a hybrid model on Oct. 12, has reported one active student case of the coronavirus.

Page County Public Schools has reported either active cases or quarantined situations among either a staff member or student at three of the county’s four elementary schools, as well as the Page County Technical Center.

Among the 16 new cases of COVID-19 reported in Page County over the past week, here’s a ZIP code breakdown of where those cases surfaced, according to the state health department:

7 cases — 22851 (Stanley area);
5 cases — 22849 (Shenandoah area);
4 cases — 22835 (Luray area).

Here’s the same breakdown for COVID-19 cases reported in Page County over the last 30 days:

20 cases — 22849 (Shenandoah area);
14 cases — 22835 (Luray area);
11 cases — 22851 (Stanley area);
2 cases — 22650 (Rileyville area).

While these figures represent the last 30 days, it should be noted that 10 of the Stanley area’s 11 new cases have been reported in the past 11 days. Both new cases reported Tuesday morning in Page County came from that area. In fact, the 22851 area code has produced at least one new case of COVID-19 each day since Saturday.

The hospitalization reported on Tuesday in Page County was the first in seven days. The county has not seen a new death due to the pandemic since Sept. 16.

Page County’s seven-day positivity rate stands at 7.9 percent, the highest level in weeks. The county’s 14-day positivity rate is 5.5 percent, which is considered “Moderate Risk” according to the CDC K-12 School Metrics. Under the other “core indicator” listed by the CDC, Page County is marked as “Higher Risk” in the category of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 over 14 days (117).

Page County is marked at the “Highest Risk” for the percentage of change in new cases per 100,000 during the last seven days compared to the previous seven days — now at 15.4 percent.

Across the Massanutten Mountain in Harrisonburg, the Friendly City saw 19 new cases of COVID-19 reported on Tuesday and 63 cases over the last four days. However, Harrisonburg has only seen one new hospitalization and no deaths in the past week. Rockingham County has reported 65 new cases in the past four days, with five hospitalizations and no deaths.

Statewide, 625 new cases of COVID-19 were reported on Tuesday. That marked a three-day decline from a high of 1,116 cases reported on Saturday. Only 687 cases were reported in Virginia on Monday.

New hospitalizations climbed to 57 on Tuesday, a jump from 30 reported two days earlier and 38 on Monday.

The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association reported Tuesday that 926 people are currently hospitalized that have either been confirmed to have COVID-19 or are awaiting test results. That figure has grown by 36 since Friday.

Among those hospitalized, 219 are currently in intensive care being treated for COVID-19, according to VHHA — an increase of 28 since Saturday. Currently, there are 104 COVID-19 patients statewide on ventilators — the same total as one week ago, but an increase of six since Sunday.

Since the pandemic hit Virginia, VHHA reports that 18,112 people who have been confirmed to have COVID-19 and were hospitalized, have been discharged.

VDH reported 15 new deaths related to the pandemic on Tuesday — an increase from only three deaths reported on both Sunday and Monday. That now brings Virginia’s COVID-19 death toll to 3,291.