Warren County holds highest mortality rate in health district since Oct. 1

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COVID-19 Coronavirus in Page County, Virginia
Page Valley News will have continuing coverage of the Coronavirus' impact on Page County.

By Randy Arrington

LURAY, Nov. 13 — Friday’s report from the Virginia Department of Health was the worst of the week for the Lord Fairfax Health District — 67 new cases, five new hospitalizations and two more deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all reported in one day.

The health district has reported four COVID-19 deaths in the last three days. Three of those deaths came in Warren County, where a coronavirus fatality was reported on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 

Warren County continues to have the highest COVID-19 mortality rate in the health district over the past six weeks, reporting 18 of the health district’s 26 pandemic deaths since Oct. 1. Warren’s pandemic death toll has reached 25. On Sept. 30, it was seven.

Warren has seen 28 new cases of the coronavirus this week, but only one hospitalization.

Frederick County also reported a COVID-19 death in this morning’s report and continues to lead the health district in new cases. In the last five days, Frederick has seen 101 new cases surface, with 35 reported on Friday alone. The county seat of Winchester has added 54 cases since Monday. Frederick has also reported six of the district’s 19 hospitalization in the past five days, with two others in Winchester.

Shenandoah County has reported 50 cases of COVID-19 since Monday, but the pace has slowed with only nine cases in the last two days. The county has seen three new hospitalizations this week, but no new deaths in the last three weeks.

Page County has reported eight new cases of COVID-19 in the last two days, after reporting seven on Wednesday. Since Monday, Page has seen a total of 22 new cases and four hospitalizations. According to ZIP code data provided by the state health department, new cases this week have been spread throughout the county and don’t seem to be clustered in any one area.

Currently, Page County’s 14-day positivity rate stands at 5.3 percent, according to School Metrics data provided on the VDH website. The county has seen a 92.9-percent increase in COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the last seven days as compared to the previous seven days.

A map of Virginia showing CDC ratings by county for 14-day case incidence of COVID-19 has Page rated as “Higher Risk,” much like the central and eastern portions of the state. However, Page is surrounded by counties listed at the “Highest Risk,” including Culpeper, Madison, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Frederick — much like the southwestern portion of the state. Warren and Clarke counties are rated the same as Page.

Clarke County has seen 10 new cases of the coronavirus and three hospitalizations since Monday.

A cumulative breakdown by jurisdiction of the health district’s 4,674 reported cases, 383 hospitalizations and 139 deaths is as follows (hospitalizations – deaths):

  • 1,427 — Frederick County (101-16)
  • 1,144 — Shenandoah County (109-61)
  • 745 — City of Winchester (48-4)
  • 685 — Warren County (50-25)
  • 524 — Page County (57-31)
  • 149 — Clarke County (18-2)

Harrisonburg and Rockingham County both reported 10 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, after only reporting a combined total of four on Thursday. Rockingham had a recent spike of 30 cases reported on Wednesday, but neither jurisdiction has reported a hospitalization or death in the past three days. In fact, Harrisonburg has only reported one hospitalization since Oct. 28 among 195 new cases, and the Friendly City has not reported a pandemic death since Oct. 8. Rockingham has reported three hospitalizations and two deaths in the last four days.

Statewide, 1,235 new cases of COVID-19 were reported on Friday, along with 69 new hospitalizations and 27 deaths. The death toll was the highest since Oct. 21 (30), while the case count represents a third day of declines and hospitalizations came in at the second-highest level of the week.

Currently, Virginia’s seven-day positivity rate stands at 6.5 percent. That rate has been climbing since mid-October when it was about 4.5 percent.

The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association reported on Friday that 1,296 people are currently hospitalized that have either been confirmed to have COVID-19 or are awaiting test results. That figure had reached 1,313 on Thursday — the highest level since Aug. 7. Friday’s figure broke a streak of six straight days of increases.

Among those hospitalized, 258 are currently in intensive care being treated for COVID-19 statewide, according to VHHA — up eight from Wednesday and up 56 since Sunday. Currently, there are 115 COVID-19 patients statewide on ventilators — up five from yesterday and up 25 from Sunday.

Since the pandemic hit Virginia, VHHA reports that 22,095 people who have been confirmed to have COVID-19 and were hospitalized, have been discharged.

With 78 deaths reported since Monday and five straight days of increases, Virginia’s pandemic death toll has climbed to 3,785.

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