Average Page County home sale surpasses $300K as local market fairs better than neighbors

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Home Sales

While region shows decline in sales, Page County fairs better than neighbors due to new construction at Luray Landing and Fairview Estates

By Randy Arrington

LURAY, Jan. 12 — After a sharp two-year rise in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the local housing market — like most of the region — has declined in terms of sales in year-to-year comparisons. However, despite the decline in numbers, Page County also reached a new milestone in 2023 as the average sold price exceeded $300,000 for the first time.

The number of homes sold in Page County dropped 11 percent from year-to-year — totaling 280 homes in 2022, while reaching just 249 in 2023. Six years ago, that figure stood at 163.

Although neighboring communities see a higher volume, Page County saw a smaller percentage of decline in the recent drop-off in sales. Shenandoah County saw a 14.4-percent drop in home sales year-to-year, from 478 in 2022, to 409 in the past 12 months. Rockingham County recorded a decline of 21 percent (from 1,156 to 912).

“One of the reasons we didn’t slow as much is because of the new construction by D.R. Horton [at Luray Landing],” said longtime Luray Realtor, Bill Dudley. “That is definitely having an impact, as well as the construction out at Fairview Estates…new construction helped us without any question.”

The biggest jump in home sales in Page County came between 2019 and 2020, when the figure went from 191 to 233 — an increase of 22 percent — as millions across the country sought to escape urban areas in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. That figure jumped to 270 homes sold in 2021 and 280 just last year.

The cooling off period after a hot real estate market over the past three years has also been fueled by rising interest rates. Some buyers and investors are hesitant to accept rates of nearly 6 percent, when the rapid rise in real estate was fueled by historically-low interest rates of 2 to 3 percent. That also drove a rise in refinancing housing mortgages as well.

“People have gotten use to 2 and 3 percent interest rates, but that time is gone,” said Dudley. “Over the next year, they could exceed 6 percent.”

While the number of home sales have slowed, values locally are still on the rise. The average sold price of a home in Page County reached an all-time high last year of $306,148. That’s a 4.3-percent increase over 2022, and an 87-percent increase in the last six years. The median sale price didn’t move over the past two years and still stands at about $260,000.

Prices are easing somewhat, however, due to a rise in inventory. Currently, there are 64 listings in Page County. At one point during the height of the COVID pandemic, there were only 13 homes listed for sale in the county. The low inventory, coupled with high demand, drove prices up from 2020-2022.

“The inventory is starting to come back,” noted Dudley. The longtime Realtor said that over most of his 30 years in the business locally, Page County has averaged 75 to 100 home listings at any given time.

The number of homes sales in Page County over $250,000 fell by 11.5 percent year-to-year, with 138 in the past 12 months compared to 156 in 2022. That figure stood at only 26 in 2018.

The average cumulative number of days on the market for local home sales rose to 53 in the past year, after being just 32 the previous year. The median cumulative days on market rose from 10 to 13.

The biggest drop in this category came between 2020 and 2021, when the average “days on market” for a home sale in Page County went from 96 down to 36. In 2018, the average seller had to wait 143 days before a contract was signed.

~ Current data for this article was taken from Bright MLS, the primary Multiple Listing System for Page County, and the Harrisonburg-Rockingham County MLS,

and provided by Bill Dudley & Associates Real Estate Inc. in Luray, Va.

•••

Annual 12-month comparisons

for Home Sales in Page County, Va.

Homes Sold

280 — 2022

270 — 2021

233 — 2020

191 — 2019

163 — 2018

Average Sale Price

$293,431 — 2022

$267,531 — 2021

$237,917 — 2020

$203,941 — 2019

$173,272 — 2018

Median Sale Price

$260,945 — 2022

$240,000 — 2021

$215,000 — 2020

$185,000 — 2019

$159,900 — 2018

Average days on market

32 — 2022

36 — 2021

96 — 2020

109 — 2019

143 — 2018

Median  days on market

10 — 2022

10 — 2021

32 — 2020

54 — 2019

66 — 2018

Sales $250,000+

156 — 2022

126 — 2021

83 — 2020

44 — 2019

26 — 2018

•••

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